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  • When the Future Becomes Today

    When the Future Becomes Today Risky Trinity Addictive Behavior Mixed Debt Signals Is the Fed Shooting Blanks? Losing the Narrative Las Vegas, Maine, NYC, and Montana “There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.” – Vladimir Lenin “However...
    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 07-12-2016
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  • The Fed Prepares to Dive

    Be Careful What You Wish For If Crazy Doesn’t Work, Try Crazier Yellen & the Spirit of Prudent Planning Y2K All Over Again? Go Thou and Do Likewise The Religion of Economics “No one will lend at a negative interest rate; potential creditors will simply choose to hold cash, which pays...
    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 02-29-2016
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  • Merkel Opens the Gates

    The Fed Punts Again The Demographic Realities of the European Immigration Crisis A New East-West Rift Merkel Has a Plan Newfound Sympathy Detroit, Toronto, NYC?, and Coconut Grove “The European Project has very little economic and political capital left to defend it if anything goes wrong now....
    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 09-21-2015
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  • Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook – Second Quarter 2015

    In today’s Outside the Box, my good friend Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management reminds us that since the 1990-91 recession, the 30-year Treasury bond yield has dropped from 9% to 3%, a downward move nearly identical to the decline in the rate of inflation, which fell from just over 6...
    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 08-01-2015
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  • Shovelin’ Schmitt Against the Tide

    There is an obsession in the marketplace over the date when the Fed will once again begin to raise rates. As if another 25 basis points is going to change the economics on tens of trillions of dollars of investments. But as we reflect on the issue more deeply, it becomes obvious that a minor bump in...
    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 03-03-2015
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  • Oil, Employment, and Growth

    The Impact of Oil On US Growth Did the Fed Cause the Shale Bubble? Oil in 2015 What If We Just Need Fewer Jobs? Cincinnati, the Cayman Islands, and Florida Last week we started a series of letters on the topics I think we need to research in depth as we try to peer into the future and think about how...
    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 12-17-2014
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  • On the Verge of Chaos

    Bad Yen Falling The Obvious Impacts Every Central Bank for Itself Seriously, the Fed Is Doing What? Complexity and Collapse The Fragile Eight Home for the Holidays “Great powers and empires are, I would suggest, complex systems, made up of a very large number of interacting components that are...
    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 11-25-2014
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  • Why the Fed Is So Wimpy

    Another in what seems to be a small parade of scandals involving secretly recorded tapes of Federal Reserve regulators emerged last week. What a number of writers (including me) have written about regulatory capture over the past decade was brought out into the open, at least for a while. My brilliant...
    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 10-01-2014
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  • Musical Chairs at the FOMC

    “You can’t tell the players without a program. Get your program here!” yelled the stadium vendors of my youth. In today’s Outside the Box I bring you an excellent piece of Fed watching by Nouriel Roubini and colleagues, a “program” of the new Fed members and where...
    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 06-20-2014
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  • Notes to the FOMC

    Janet Yellen, the new Fed chair, has her admirers and her detractors. One unabashed admirer is my good friend David Zervos, Jefferies' chief market strategist, who during the past several months has taken to hollering "Dammit Janet, I love you!" He was at it again yesterday: Last week was...
    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 02-19-2014
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  • WTF?

    It is a regular ritual for major US businesses: the end-of-the-quarter conference call in which the CEO dissects what just happened and gives us some insight on what to expect for the future of the company. My good friend Rich Yamarone, the chief economist at Bloomberg, is the creator of the Bloomberg...
    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 12-11-2013
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  • Euthanasia of the Economy?

    Today's Outside the Box comes to us from my good friend and business partner Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners in London. Niels gives us an excellent summary of how QE has affected the global economy (and how it hasn't). I have found myself paraphrasing Niels all week. I also want to call...
    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 12-04-2013
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  • Arsonists Running the Fire Brigade

    Promoting Failure No Apologies, Only Promotions Navigating the Unknown: What Investors Need to Know for 2014 New York, Geneva, Saudi Arabia, Dubai, and Northwest Canada The true measure of a career is to be able to be content, even proud, that you succeeded through your own endeavors without leaving...
    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 12-02-2013
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  • A Limited Central Bank

    This week’s Outside the Box is unusual, even for a letter that is noted for its unusual offerings. It is a speech from last week by Charles I. Plosser , President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia at (surprisingly to me) the Cato Institute’s 31st Annual Monetary Conference, Washington...
    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 11-20-2013
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  • What Would Yellen Do?

    What Questions Would You Ask Janet Yellen? The Fed’s Dilemma What Would Yellen Do? The Questions That Will Not Be Asked New York, Ringing the NASDAQ Bell, and Home The US Senate Banking Committee will hold hearings on Thursday, November 14, on the nomination of Janet Yellen for Federal Reserve...
    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 11-11-2013
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