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IN THIS ISSUE: Economy Continues to Recover, But Slowly Consumer Confidence Falls Off a Cliff Bank Lending Continues to Plunge More Really Bad News on the Housing Front Are “Option-ARMs” the Next Subprime Crisis? End of an Era for Coach Halbert Introduction Most economists and market analysts...
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IN THIS ISSUE: 4Q GDP to Rise - But by How Much? Retail Sales - Worst Drop on Record in 2009 Uncertainty and the Slow Recovery Political Implications & How to Move Forward Conclusions: Expect the Economy to Disappoint P.S. Pelosi & Reid Plot Secret Plan for ObamaCare Introduction All eyes will...
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IN THIS ISSUE: 3Q GDP Revised Lower Than Expected Debt Ceiling Raised For Only Six Weeks Disappointing Holiday Spending in 2009 A Little Good News on the Housing Slump The Outlook For 2010 - Who Knows? Introduction We will touch on a lot of bases in this holiday issue of my weekly E-Letter. We start...
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IN THIS ISSUE: Has the Economy Really Turned the Corner? Bloomberg Survey Finds More People Unhappy Fed "Beige Book" Shows Modest Recovery Consumer Lending Continues to Shrink Conclusions - Outlook is Still Very Uncertain Introduction The economy clearly rebounded in the 3Q, although many problems...
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In This Issue: The Economy Continues to Improve Slowly Plunge in Commercial Real Estate Values More Trouble Ahead for the Banks Glut of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities Personal: Thinking Wrong, But Getting It Right Introduction There is broad agreement that we have seen the worst of the recession...
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IN THIS ISSUE: The Economy - More Signs of Recovery Is the Recession & Credit Crisis Over? Obama Adds $2 Trillion to Debt Forecast Economic Assumptions Still Too Optimistic What in the World Are They Thinking? Do They Want Control Even If It Ruins The Economy? Introduction In my June 16 E-Letter...
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IN THIS ISSUE: Economic Signs of Improvement Fed Vows to Keep Rates Low Market Comments from John P. Hussman, Ph.D. Conclusions Introduction We have seen some encouraging economic news in recent weeks, and President Obama and his cronies in the mainstream media have declared that the worst recession...
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IN THIS ISSUE: Finally, Some Good News For The US Economy More Insights From The Latest GDP Report Media & Obama Declare The Recession Is Ending Consumer Spending Is Still The Key 100+ Hedge Fund Managers Offer Their Predictions Introduction The Commerce Department announced last Friday that the...
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There is a reason I call this column Outside the Box. I try to get material that forces us to think outside our normal comfort zones and challenges our common assumptions. I have made the comment more than once that is it unusual for two major bubbles to burst and for the conversation to be all about...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
07-13-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Deflation, Japan, Dr. Lacy Hunt, Van Hoisington, GDP, Bonds, Economic Forecast, Velocity, Fiscal Policy, Economic Data, Debt, NBER
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IN THIS ISSUE: Obama's Government Takeover Continues Editorial: "Too Big to Fail, Or Succeed" Americans More Concerned About Deficits Economy May Have Seen the Worst of It Conclusions Introduction The more I think about it, I believe that last week's E-Letter which revealed President...
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IN THIS ISSUE: The Latest Economic Reports -- Mostly Negative Latest Wall Street Journal Survey of Economists Fed's Latest "Beige Book" Outlook is Bleak Conclusions -- What To Believe? Introduction We have clients calling us every day to ask if we believe the economy and the stock markets...
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This week we will look at two shorter essays for this edition of Outside the Box. The first is some thoughtful words by Tom Au on whether or not we have put in a true bottom for the market. I particularly want you to read his thoughts on what earnings will look like going forward, and whether we can...
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IN THIS ISSUE: The Economy Continues To Slump Badly US Stock Markets Continue To Plunge Obama's Multi-Trillion Dollar Spending Spree Obama's Budget – The First $2 TRILLION Deficit? Obama's Plan To Nationalize Health Care This Year Obama's “Cap-and-Trade” Environmental Proposal Conclusions...
Posted to
Forecasts & Trends
by
Gary D. Halbert
on
03-10-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Gary D. Halbert, Stocks, GDP, Economic Forecast, Economic Policy, Inflation, Barack Obama, Deficit, AIG, Employment, Cap-and-Trade, Environment, Health Care
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The Endgame Employment Numbers Are Worse Than Posted Aye, Captain, I'm Giving Her All I've Got! Problem #1: Deflation Problem #2: Pushing on a String The Muddle Through Middle Conversations With John Deflation? Stimulus? Deleveraging? Recession? A soft depression? A return to a bull market? With...
Posted to
Thoughts From The Frontline
by
John Mauldin
on
01-17-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Employment, GDP, Debt, Economic Forecast, Muddle Through, Economic Crisis, Deflation, TARP, Obama, Pushing on a String, Stimulus
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IN THIS ISSUE: Editor's Notes On BCA & The Other Gary Halbert Obama & The New Age Of Big Government The Economy -- Have We Seen The Worst Of It? Are The Bailouts Necessary & Will They Work? The Latest Disappointing Economic Reports Stock Markets -- Might We Have Seen The Bottom? Introduction...
Posted to
Forecasts & Trends
by
Gary D. Halbert
on
01-06-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Gary D. Halbert, GDP, Economic Forecast, Barack Obama, Politics, Bailout, Economy, Scotia Partners, Halbert Wealth Management, Financial Crisis, Deflation, Government, Bank Credit Analyst