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  • The Room – 04/03/2009

    In the March 6, 2009 edition of this missive/blog/column/whatever you want to call it, I listed three 'Desperate Measures' the U.S. government might turn to next in its futile attempt to rearrange the ruined economy into something more resembling a perfect world.

    Suspend 'mark to market' rules. At the time of my initial write-up (which you can read here), highly placed sources within the financial services industry that I spoke to were of the opinion that no significant changes would be made, for the simple reason that to do otherwise would risk destroying what little credibility was left for the financial sector.

    As you now know, the government has strong-armed the FASB into modifying the rules, essentially allowing companies to 'mark to model.' Which simply means that the same financial wizards who helped create the models so pivotal to causing the mess in the first place are now free to dust those models off, give them a little tweak, and use them to fabricate more attractive values for the toxic waste than the market was willing to assign. Some might term these rule changes outrageous, fraud even... I call it business as usual.

    Bad bank. The government has moved forward with this initiative as well, essentially rigging up a system that literally guarantees that a very small handful of firms -- likely just four or five -- will receive the sweetheart deal of the century, at the same time that the U.S. taxpayer gets the short end of the stick... right up the side of the head.

    Fed buys long-term Treasuries. This, too, has now come to pass and is likely to accelerate. While there are many ways that one could describe this latest initiative, I find it best to keep these things simple... it's called inflation....
  • Where Is the Economy Going in the Next Six Months?

    As investors, the question we have to focus most of our attention on just now is what impact the credit crisis, the bursting housing bubble and the actions of the U.S. government will have on the economy and investment markets in the next six months. We have seen the Fed and the federal government move to panic mode as they try to keep the system afloat. As expected, they have cut rates, as well as having given away checks and rearranged the Federal Reserve's entire balance sheet. The underlying problems have not been fixed with this massive bailout. There are still many credit pot holes out there and new lending remains highly constrained. Even the government tax rebate checks, rather than boosting the domestic economy, were largely absorbed by higher oil prices. The resulting cut-back in consumer spending, coupled with ongoing constrictions in lending, will cause a severe slowing of the economy....
  • The Room 3/31/08

    Dear Reader , I am writing to you in the pre-dawn from a soft chair in a Starbucks in Scottsdale, a vast improvement over the small desk in the cluttered toy room that I usually write you from on Fridays. 16 inches from my left hand is a "vente"...
  • The Room 3/24/08

    Dear Reader , It used to be of no little pride in the small New England town where Casey Research is headquartered that school went forward, no matter the weather. Hail, 8-foot-high snow drifts, ice rain and, should they have occurred hereabouts (which...
  • The Room 3/17/08

    Dear Reader , You don't need me to tell you, but the $1,000 mark is the latest to fall beneath gold's mighty rise. Even so, as a benchmark, the number $1,000 is meaningless. It represents no new high in the inflation-adjusted prices that count...
  • The Room 3/3/08

    Dear Readers, It's getting to the point where even the most determined optimist is having a hard time finding a good reason to roll out of bed. Among just the smattering of news that crossed the lens this week... Producer prices rose 7.4 percent in...
  • The Room 2/18/08

    Dear Reader, Foolishly, I now realize, I closed last week's column by announcing that I would endeavor to write today's entire missive without a single mention of... okay, well, just this once... government. Some readers have suggested that I...