Dear Fellow Investor:
Things turned south this week, with the major indexes posting their first losing week in three. Our long positions gave up some ground along with the general indexes.
Markets remain overbought and we are very close to a "Red Flag Flying" signal, indicating lower prices ahead. The environment remains difficult and in my opinion, caution is in order.
We have a huge week ahead with a flurry of reports, particularly on Thursday and Friday, that could make for a wild ride in the markets later this week.
The View from 35,000 Feet
Economic reports were less than robust with U.S. home resales declining, new home sales basically flat and durable goods orders declining unexpectedly in August.
On the upside, the Fed kept interest rates near zero and the G20 said they'd sustain stimulus programs and they see a turnaround in progresss. Consumer confidence came in at the highest levels since 2008.
There were downwards revisions in financials and energy and upwards revisions in tech and consumer stocks.
On Friday we had our weekly bank failure, bringing the yearly total to 95 and unemployment is approaching the top of the double dip recession in 1982.
The Week Ahead:
As I mentioned at the outset, this week will have enormous implications going into the autumn and set the stage for the earnings season about to get underway.
Here are the more significant reports coming at us this week, with Thursday and Friday bringing whoppers like Construction Spending and Auto Sales and Friday's monthly payroll data and Factory Orders.
Tuesday: July Case/Shiller Home Price Index, September Consumer Confidence
Wednesday: September ADP Employment Summary, Final Q2 GDP, September Chicago PMI
Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims, August Personal Income, August Personal Spending, August Construction Spending, September ISM Index, August Pending Home Sales, September Auto Sales
Friday: September Non Farm Payrolls, August Factory Orders
Sector Spotlight:
Leaders: Bonds, Yen
Laggards: Real Estate, Mexico
It's a warm weekend in Bend and we're soaking up the last few warm days as winter is certainly on its way.
John
John Nyaradi
Publisher
All information presented herein is for general information only and deemed to be from reliable sources, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Readers are strongly advised to check with their investment counselors before making any investment. There is risk of loss in all investment activity.
Posted
09-26-2009 5:52 PM
by
John Nyaradi