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Special Report: Precise Direction in a Changing Market - November 2009

Spencer T. Coles — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 21:01:38 GMT

How to pocket +20% returns each week, no matter the direction of the market!

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China ACM (OTC-BB : CADC) - Research Report by Harbinger Research

IIP Webmaster — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 17:42:26 GMT

China ACM is a dynamic, rapidly-growing concrete company in the world's largest nation and fastest developing major economy. The Company has a sound growth strategy, defensible technological advantages, deep industry and government relationships, and a seven year track record of success. Candidly, we believe significant upside to our estimates and price target exist, and given the relatively low risks inherent in China ACM's operations and industry, we rate the shares a Strong Buy, with a 12-month price target of $12.60 per share. We believe CADC shares represent an excellent investment opportunity for any and all investors who can tolerate the risks of investing in Chinese companies and who understand and can tolerate typical small-cap volatility. Overall, we believe CADC shares represent one of the best opportunities in our coverage universe.

NF Energy Saving (OTC-BB:NFEC) Post Reverse-Split Report Reissuance by Harbinger Research

IIP Webmaster — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 15:10:33 GMT

NFEC is an already-proven industrial company that exhibits the growth characteristics of a young, high-growth enterprise, and it has recently announced a break-out quarter. Furthermore, the Company is in the sweet-spot of global energy price/supply trends and the pervasive push for more efficient energy use. The Company is well managed, well-funded, and strategically located near China’s iron belt, giving it below-market price for its raw materials inputs. Given its low trailing price-to-earnings multiple, we are comfortable that NFEC shares are worth considerably more than US$5.25, even if 2009 and 2010 do not exceed our estimates as we now hope they will. Therefore, we rate the shares of NF Energy Savings a Strong Buy, and set our 12-month price target at $8.64 per share, with significant upside to this target during the second half of 2009.

NF Energy Saving (OTC-BB:NFES) Research Report by Catalyst Financial

IIP Webmaster — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 21:09:03 GMT

NFES management executed a strong growth plan the past three years, as revenue nearly tripled from $5.3 million in 2006 to $15.8 in 2008 (+72.7% CAGR), driven largely by strong sales of innovative flow-control products. Management intends to continue focusing on significant opportunities in these areas, while augmenting this growth with new product entries targeting the rapidly growing wind power markets. The Company has successfully field tested several of its turbine components with prospective customers and is in active discussions regarding production orders.

We are forecasting 2009 sales of $27.7 million and EPS of $0.16 for NFES; for 2010 we expect sales of $40 million and $0.25 EPS, based on expected shipments of existing orders and anticipated order rates for future projects. Better margin wind components are expected to substantially increase the revenue growth trajectory in 2010 with completion of the new automated production facility.

Based on these factors, we are establishing a price target of $2.50, or 10x our 2010 EPS estimate of $0.25 and 2.5x revs/share estimate.

Universal Travel Group (NYSE - UTA) Visits the NYSE

IIP Webmaster — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 23:30:46 GMT

In honor of the occasion, CEO Jenny Jiang rings The Opening Bell^SM in celebration of the company’s recent listing on NYSE Amex on May 28, 2009.

Universal Travel Group (UTA - NYSE/Amex) Institutional Research Brief by Harbinger Research

IIP Webmaster — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 18:20:08 GMT

STRONG FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE CONTINUES: Core businesses growing at over 20% CAGR, with no LT debt and almost $20M in cash. Kiosk program in full swing.

We believe the Company is continuing to execute well while also making good strategic decisions, such as the divestiture of its air shipping business. This strategic move has left the Company completely focused on air ticketing, travel and hotel reservations, and travel package sales, all of which are strategically consistent. The Company has also shown solid organic growth in each of its businesses, as evidenced by revenues and earnings, its recent move into another region of China, and its accelerating kiosk rollout.

Company Overview

Universal Travel Group trades on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) under the symbol UTA. Based in Shenzhen, China, the company’s operates three primary lines of business: air ticketing, tours and packaged travel, and hotel reservations; it recently divested its air cargo business, which was shrinking and had relatively low margins. Although the Company has historically had overall gross margins in the 33% range, we expect an improvement to the 36% - 37% range based on the shipping business divestiture. Air Ticketing is rapidly growing and has almost 95% gross margins, so we could continue to see gross margin improvement in the coming quarters. Given the Company’s relatively stable operating expense base, we also believe that there is significant operating leverage in the business, which should lead to ever-improving net margins as the Company continues to grow sales.

Since making its key business acquisitions in 2007 and 2008, the company has developed an integrated offering for Chinese and foreign travelers, that includes a fully-featured Web-based system and a recently-introduced Kiosk system that the Company is aggressively rolling out (now 150 locations). This offering’s popularity1 has been driving the exceptional growth in the Company’s highest margin businesses, and we expect the large-scale rollout of its well-received Kiosk system to extend this trend. The Company plans to have between 600 and 1,000 kiosks in operation by the end of this year.

The Company also boasts a seasoned management team that has demonstrated the ability to grow the business while controlling costs, and to successfully acquire and integrate several related enterprises.

Universal Travel Group (UTA - NYSE/Amex) Research Report by Emissary Capital

IIP Webmaster — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 18:01:58 GMT

Fair value of $16. ECG is initiating research coverage on shares of Universal Travel Group (UTG) with a Buy rating and target price of $16, which assumes a potential ROI of 40%. On the heels of a 50% rally following the effectiveness of a 3 for 1 reverse stock split (as of March 31, 2009), our target price assumes that the shares can continue to trade up to a P/E of12x and10x conservatively projected 2009/2010 EPS of $1.22 and $1.53, respectively, though the recent run up suggests that the opportunity may be more suitable for investors with a 12-month time horizon and thus a tolerance for speculative risk. Our positive view remains reasonable based on our firm conviction that UTG’s business can sustainably operate at a 3-year revenue and earnings CAGR of 25% - versus its uninterrupted historical CAGR north of 40% - which would imply the shares are currently trading at a compelling valuation level based on PEG (0.4x), relative (30-40% discount to U.S.-listed peers on all metrics), and DCF valuation bases.

Near-term projections (2Q09, 3Q09, 4Q09) are based on positive macro/industry and micro trends, but minimally on new brand building and business initiatives such as the rollout of the company’s capex-intensive TRIPEASY kiosk concept, which has the makings of serving as a significant top and bottom-line growth accelerator and catalyst for the stock over a 6 to 12-month period. Recently, the company also received approval for a NYSE/Amex listing, which we anticipate will continue to create a wider secondary market for the shares.

In addition, business and leisure travel within China appears to be stabilizing, with the government stimuli and 50%+ run ups in the mainland composites clearly aiding sentiment. To its credit, we believe UTG, over the past twelve months, has endured extensive discounting by airlines and hotels as a result of its well-diversified and improving revenue mix as reflected by gross margin improvements into the mid to high 30% range. Looking forward, profitability levels should be supported by potential for upside pricing surprises, further government initiatives to promote domestic consumption either through subsidies or tax incentives, the likelihood of steady commission rates on air and hotel bookings, and the ability for the company to offset declines in revenue per air ticket or hotel room with volume growth and cost controls.

Top 10 Stocks Under $5 from PennyStockTreasure.com

IIP Webmaster — Tue, 12 May 2009 20:18:04 GMT

How to Find "Buried Treasure" in Wall Street’s Most Underappreciated Stocks

To many, making money in today’s stock market can be an extremely difficult - even impossible - task.

While it’s true you may be able to hold your own against your "peers" (other nonprofessional investors), beating seasoned market pros at their own game is a battle you’ll rarely win. The odds are just not in your favor, since these "experts" have the privilege of playing on an uneven financial field.

Over the course of my long career on "The Street", I’ve seen "up close and personal" how "conventional" Wall Street wisdom works against the "little guy" - the average investor.

But I’ve found a way to beat this system and earn above-average… or even extraordinary returns in the process-by unearthing what I now call Wall Street’s Buried Treasure.

So here’s the first thing you need to do related to that "conventional, deck stacked in their favor" Wall Street wisdom...

Savvy Money Moves to Make NOW for a Richer Retirement

IIP Webmaster — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 00:49:22 GMT

Are You Socking Away Enough?

The biggest planning mistake most people make is not realizing how much retirement will cost and how much money they will need. Fortunately, those who remember a few principles and use today's low-cost technology can substantially reduce the margin of error.

Surveys of future retirees abound. An interesting survey from Merrill Lynch found that 42% of Baby Boomers do not know how much money they will need to live comfortably in retirement. That is a key point because surveys of those already retired reveal that those who did some kind of retirement planning were better prepared financially than those who did no forecasts.

There are many ways to do some basic retirement planning in addition to taking the time and expense of meeting with a financial planner. There are books and other materials available through most 401(k) plans, mutual funds, and other financial service firms. There also are a number of web sites that offer retirement calculators, many of them free, some for a fee.

No matter which approach you use to plan for retirement, keep in mind that retirement planning is not science. It is an art. There are different methods for estimating retirement spending, and assumptions are used in each method. Do not simply accept the estimate generated. Understand how it was developed and its limits.

Here are the key principles to keep in mind...

SilverCrest Mines, Inc. (TSXV - SVL) - –Updated Resource Estimate for Santa Elena Project

IIP Webmaster — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 20:56:13 GMT

Investment Analysis for Intelligent Investors from Fundamental Research Corp.

SilverCrest holds three silver-gold properties in Sonora, Mexico and one in Santa Ana, El Salvador.

A recently updated mineral resource estimate on the Santa Elena project in Mexico, increased indicated gold and silver resources by 150% and 173% respectively. Updated NI 41-101 resource estimates are: 339,600 oz gold, 11.93 million oz silver probable; 190,600 oz gold, 11.82 million oz silver indicated and; 116,235 oz gold, 7.98 million oz silver inferred.

Environmental Impact Assessment has been approved granting the right to develop and operate the Santa Elena mine.

The company intends to develop the Santa Elena mine as an open pit, heap leach operation, with potential to go underground.

In a best case scenario, and management’s plan, construction of the heap leach pads and tailings ponds will be completed prior to the summer rainy season and initial production will begin before the end of 2009.

Considering its current cash position, we believe, the company has to raise about US$17 - US$18 million in the next 3 to 4 months in order to commence production by the end of 2009.

Increased resource estimates led to an increase in our DCF valuation. However, comparables valuation dropped as the average EV/Resource ratio of its peers dropped from $2.08 to $1.16 per oz.

Based on our revised valuation models, and review of the company’s progress since our previous report, we reiterate our BUY rating, and maintain our fair value at $1.98. Although the comparables valuation has dropped, the DCF value has increased which shows that the company is progressing its projects in the right direction while the market continues to be volatile.

China Energy Recovery (CGYV - OTC:BB) Research Report

IIP Webmaster — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 20:44:34 GMT

Independent Investment Analysis by Harbinger Research

China Energy Recovery creates custom systems that reclaim waste heat from industrial and electricity generation processes. These systems remove harmful waste products from exhaust gasses while also recycling as steam energy up to 2/3 of the heat typically lost as exhaust. The Company is based in China and is currently benefitting from the new “environment-friendly” set of policies recently instituted by the Chinese government.

Magnitude Information System (MAGY - OTB:BB) Research Report

IIP Webmaster — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 20:41:12 GMT

Independent Investment Analysis by Harbinger Research

Magnitude Information System: The Company’s Kiwibox.com site boasts an escalating membership of teens and is in the midst of a rapid new user adoption cycle. Kiwibox provides teenagers with teen-focused content, social networking, and a variety of games, music, and other “sticky” features. Kiwibox.com is emerging as the top teenfocused destination on the Web, and is accessible from a traditional Web browser as well as a Web-enabled mobile phone.

The Daily Show - John Stewart vs. Jim Cramer

MadeOmoney — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 15:50:48 GMT

Mar 12, 2009 ... Jim Cramer. News Team: Jon Stewart. Jon and Jim Cramer prepare for their highly anticipated skirmish! Great Stuff!!

Buy and Hope Investing - 02-27-2009 - Audio Version

John Mauldin — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 15:14:13 GMT

This week Professor Jeremy Siegel (author of Stocks for the Long Run) had an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal showing that stocks are now cheap. I was on Tech Ticker, and Henry Blodgett challenged me about my e-letter last week, where I talked about how expensive stocks are. So which is it? We look at Professor Siegel's work -- and I let you decide. But first, and quickly, I just wanted to take a moment and remind you to sign up for the Richard Russell Tribute Dinner, all set for Saturday, April 4 at the Manchester Grand Hyatt in San Diego -- if you haven't already. This is sure to be an extraordinary evening honoring a great friend and associate of mine, and yours as well. I do hope that you can join us for a night of memories, laughs, and good fun with fellow admirers and long-time readers of Richard's Dow Theory Letter....

The Continuing Recession: How Bad Is It and How Long Will It Last? - A personal conversation with John Mauldin

John Mauldin — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 22:18:57 GMT

I told my readers we would have a recession in 2007; it’s now 14 months long and counting. Will this be a “V” shaped rebound or a “L” shaped recovery? With higher unemployment and lower consumer spending, this could be a nasty one, so here’s my thoughts on “Why” and “What You Can Do About It.”

NOTE: You must be signed into the website to view or download this video!

Forbe's Retirement Planning Guide

IIP Webmaster — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 17:35:25 GMT

Inside this guide:

7 Steps to Savings Sanity
The Great 401(k) Escape
The Shrinking Lump

Forbes’ Guide for Wine Lovers

IIP Webmaster — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 17:31:23 GMT

The most successful people in the world consider Forbes their indispensable business resource. To help readers like you play as hard as you work,we have created this “Guide for Wine Lovers,” Forbes’ essential guide to our favorite wines. There are wine selections here for everyday and for grand celebrations. We hope you will find it helpful on your next trip to the wine shop.

Time for a Reality Check - 02/14/2009 - Audio Version

John Mauldin — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 15:12:53 GMT

It is not just the US that is in recession. The world is slowing down, and rapidly. This week we quickly survey the rest of the world, and then come back to the US. We follow up with the implications for corporate earnings worldwide, and specifically address my speculations about earnings forecasts for 2009. Let's start with some charts from my friend Simon Hunt, out of London. The following chart shows World Merchandise Export Values and World Industrial Production falling off a cliff. This is the worst such period since the end of World War II. And as the data we will examine next indicates, it is likely to get worse....

A Case for Investing in China

IIP Webmaster — Mon, 16 Feb 2009 16:32:30 GMT

The cradle of one of the oldest civilizations on earth is the scene of the most extraordinary economic and financial transformation in history. In the last 30 years, the People's Republic of China has been home to the fastest growing major economy the world has ever seen. This is a country where change is taking place on an unprecedented scale and at an unprecedented rate, where people are living lives unimaginable just a few years ago. This communist nation has learned how to cash in on capitalism and private enterprise. China and its people are growing richer and more powerful every day.

It is impossible to ignore the economic growth phenomenon that has unfolded in China over the past three decades. In 1978, Chairman Deng Xiaoping, the architect of "The New Socialist Market Economy", initiated an unprecedented social and economic transformation that ended Chairman Mao Zedong's devastating Cultural Revolution.

The successful implementation of this ambitious and revolutionary social experiment laid the foundation for what has become the world’s most dynamic economy. With average annual growth rates of approximately 10% since 1992 (hailed by The Economist in 2005 as "The Great Leap Forward” and “A Model of Reform”), China has emerged as an economic powerhouse. It has grown faster for longer than any country in history.

The People's Republic now accounts for 13% of global gross domestic product (GDP), based on purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates, and most economists agree that soon, China will surpass Japan in GDP making it the second largest economy on earth behind the United States. China's economy is already second when evaluated based on purchasing power and it has been suggested that China could reach parity with the U.S. by 2020.

China's accession to the World Trade Organization and the overwhelming success of the 2008 Olympics attest to China's growing importance on the world economic stage.

Here Comes Tarp 3 and 4 - 01-24-2009 - Audio Version

John Mauldin — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 21:54:20 GMT

What does it mean for Citigroup to be at $3? As it turns out, it distorts the information we think we are getting from the Dow Jones Industrial Index. And more TARP money is surely in our future, and far more than anyone in authority is now suggesting. This week's letter will cover both topics and a little more. I think you will find it interesting. Before we get into the letter, just two quick housekeeping items. First, I spend most of my week researching and writing. Part of that process is the ability to call friends and esteemed colleagues to discuss our different points of view about the present markets and economy. I have offered, for the first time, exclusive access for my readers to listen in on those conversations. The first "Conversation" will be with Dr. Lacy Hunt and Ed Easterling next Tuesday, and we will have it ready for subscribers to my new service shortly thereafter. This new subscription service will allow you to listen in on Conversations with me and my friends about the most critical financial and economic topics of the day.

The Endgame - 01-17-2009 - Audio Version

John Mauldin — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 05:25:18 GMT

Deflation? Stimulus? Deleveraging? Recession? A soft depression? A return to a bull market? With all that is going on, how does it all end up? When we get to where we are going, where will we be? In chess, the endgame refers to the stage of the game when there are few pieces left on the board. The line between middlegame and endgame is often not clear, and may occur gradually or with the quick exchange of a few pairs of pieces. The endgame, however, tends to have different characteristics from the middlegame, and the players have correspondingly different strategic concerns. And in the current economic endgame, your strategy needs to consist of more than hope for a renewed bull market.

I Meant to Do That - 12-19-2008 - Audio Version

John Mauldin — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 05:23:34 GMT

The Fed has taken interest rates to zero. They have clearly started a program of quantitative easing. What exactly does that mean? Are we all now Japanese? Is the Fed pushing on a string, as Japan has done for almost two decades? The quick answer is no, but the quick answer doesn't tell us much. We may not be in for a two-decades-long Japanese malaise, but we will experience a whole new set of circumstances. In what will hopefully be a shorter holiday version of the e-letter, I will tackle these questions and more.

2008: Annus Horribilis, RIP - 01-02-2009 - Audio Version

John Mauldin — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 05:21:51 GMT

This week we look at a very interesting, if not altogether encouraging, piece of research on the length and severity of recessions that come during periods of financial crisis, which can apply to not just the US but all countries that are involved in the current crisis. But being forewarned is better than blindly stumbling through, so we will take some time to peruse it. Then we (briefly) look at the depth of the manufacturing numbers in the US, which leads us into the recent bout of earnings downgrades and some thoughts as to where that might suggest the market is going. That should be enough for this week.

Forecast 2009: Deflation and Recession

IIP Webmaster — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 16:54:21 GMT

A Special Report From John Mauldin

Where are we headed in 2009? John Mauldin examines some of the larger forces which will have a major impact on the economies of the world over the coming year. Deflation, deleveraging, the fallout from the stimulus plans, housing, consumer spending, unemployment, and a lot more...

The Velocity Factor - 12/05/2008 - Audio Version

John Mauldin — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 20:33:51 GMT

A severe global recession will lead to deflationary pressures. Falling demand will lead to lower inflation as companies cut prices to reduce excess inventory. Slack in labour markets from rising unemployment will control labor costs and wage growth. Further slack in commodity markets as prices fall will lead to sharply lower inflation. Thus inflation in advanced economies will fall towards the 1 per cent level that leads to concerns about deflation. Deflation is dangerous as it leads to a liquidity trap, a deflation trap and a debt deflation trap: nominal policy rates cannot fall below zero and thus monetary policy becomes ineffective. We are already in this liquidity trap since the Fed funds target rate is still 1 per cent but the effective one is close to zero as the Federal Reserve has flooded the financial system with liquidity; and by early 2009 the target Fed funds rate will formally hit 0 per cent. Also, in deflation the fall in prices means the real cost of capital is high - despite policy rates close to zero - leading to further falls in consumption and investment....