http://investorsinsight.com/search/SearchResults.aspx?a=13&o=DateDescending&tag=GDP&orTags=0Search results matching tag 'GDP'en-USCommunityServer 2008.5 SP1 (Build: 31106.3070)http://investorsinsight.com/media/p/2940.aspxFri, 20 Feb 2009 15:12:53 GMT94e1e1ff-3922-415d-9584-19119299714b:2940JohnMauldin<p>It is not just the US that is in recession. The world is slowing down, and rapidly. This week we quickly survey the rest of the world, and then come back to the US. We follow up with the implications for corporate earnings worldwide, and specifically address my speculations about earnings forecasts for 2009. Let&#39;s start with some charts from my friend Simon Hunt, out of London. The following chart shows World Merchandise Export Values and World Industrial Production falling off a cliff. This is the worst such period since the end of World War II. And as the data we will examine next indicates, it is likely to get worse....<br /><br /></p>http://investorsinsight.com/media/p/2798.aspxTue, 27 Jan 2009 05:25:18 GMT94e1e1ff-3922-415d-9584-19119299714b:2798JohnMauldin<p>Deflation? Stimulus? Deleveraging? Recession? A soft depression? A return to a bull market? With all that is going on, how does it all end up? When we get to where we are going, where will we be? In chess, the endgame refers to the stage of the game when there are few pieces left on the board. The line between middlegame and endgame is often not clear, and may occur gradually or with the quick exchange of a few pairs of pieces. The endgame, however, tends to have different characteristics from the middlegame, and the players have correspondingly different strategic concerns. And in the current economic endgame, your strategy needs to consist of more than hope for a renewed bull market.<br /></p>http://investorsinsight.com/media/p/2796.aspxTue, 27 Jan 2009 05:21:51 GMT94e1e1ff-3922-415d-9584-19119299714b:2796JohnMauldin<p>This week we look at a very interesting, if not altogether encouraging, piece of research on the length and severity of recessions that come during periods of financial crisis, which can apply to not just the US but all countries that are involved in the current crisis. But being forewarned is better than blindly stumbling through, so we will take some time to peruse it. Then we (briefly) look at the depth of the manufacturing numbers in the US, which leads us into the recent bout of earnings downgrades and some thoughts as to where that might suggest the market is going. That should be enough for this week.<br /></p>http://investorsinsight.com/media/p/2406.aspxWed, 12 Nov 2008 15:55:26 GMT94e1e1ff-3922-415d-9584-19119299714b:2406JohnMauldin<p>This week we survey the economic landscape that the new president will inherit. It is a polite understatement to say that he will be getting a serious mess. In reality, the US goes to the polls this next Tuesday to elect a Janitor-in-Chief. He will face a task that rivals that of Hercules in cleaning out the Stygian stables (legendary huge stables that had not been mucked out for ten years). However, there are no convenient rivers at hand for a probable President Obama to redirect that will quickly be able to clean out the mess left in the stables of our economy. This will indeed be an Herculean task and one that will take most of the first term of the next administration. So, let&#39;s look at what will face the next president. It should make for an interesting, even if not optimistic, letter....</p>http://investorsinsight.com/media/p/2372.aspxWed, 05 Nov 2008 18:52:14 GMT94e1e1ff-3922-415d-9584-19119299714b:2372JohnMauldin<p>Warren Buffett says buy. Jeremy Grantham says it will get worse. Both are celebrated value investors. Who is right? It all depends upon your view of the third derivative of investing. Today we look at valuations in the stock market. This is the second part of a speech I have given in the past few weeks in California and Stockholm. I am updating the numbers, as the target keeps moving. While from one perspective things look rather difficult, from another there is a ray of hope. What can you expect to earn from stocks over the next five years? It should make for an interesting letter. Note: this will be a little longer than usual, but part of it is there are a LOT of charts. I should note that I am rewriting this on Monday. For the first time in over 8 years, I missed my Friday night deadline (see below). Last week&#39;s title for the letter was &quot;The Economic Blue Screen of Death.&quot; By that I referred to the old &quot;blue screen of death&quot; that we used to get on early versions of Microsoft MS-DOS and Windows. You could be working away and suddenly, for no apparent reason, the computer would freeze up and you would get a blue screen. The only thing you could do was unplug the computer and hit the reset button - losing everything that was not saved when the computer crashed...</p>http://investorsinsight.com/media/p/2135.aspxTue, 09 Sep 2008 18:29:49 GMT94e1e1ff-3922-415d-9584-19119299714b:2135JohnMauldin<p>Last week&#39;s letter was the first part of a speech I have been giving on what I think will be the rise of a new asset class. This week will be the second and final part. Let me set up this section with a few paragraphs from last week&#39;s letter and then a quick summary. If you want to read the entire letter from last week, you can go to the website archives. But first, a quick note. George Friedman from Stratfor was at my daughter&#39;s wedding rehearsal dinner last night. He had just found out about the invasion of South Ossetia by Georgia and was keeping track of the events over his Blackberry from his correspondents on the ground in Georgia....</p>http://investorsinsight.com/media/p/2134.aspxTue, 09 Sep 2008 18:24:43 GMT94e1e1ff-3922-415d-9584-19119299714b:2134JohnMauldin<p>The old mantra was that if the United States sneezed, the rest of the world would catch a cold, as the US was seen as the main driver of world growth. That was then. Economists and analysts began to argue that China and the developing markets were starting to provide a consumer base for the world. And Europe&#39;s new and growing markets would be able to stave off problems from abroad and stay on their own growth path. The world, we were assured last year, would not suffer from problems in the US economy. Today, we look at evidence that this might not quite be the case. And if it is not, those who look for diversification in global markets may be disappointed. Also, I quickly look back at my January forecasts and feel it may be time for a mid-course correction. It seems I may have been a little too optimistic. It should make for an interesting letter....</p>