Daily Pfennig

A free, quick-reading daily e-letter on world currencies, economic trends, and the occasional baseball score.

Daily Pfennig

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    • SGE Takes On Gold Fixing On March 20.

      In This Issue.

      * Dollar taking no prisoners.

      * But two currencies carve out gains today.

      * Euro in a free fall, like dollar in 2009

      * Swiss francs fall below parity! .

    • Look Who Wants To Compromise Now.

      In This Issue.

      * No data means no weak data.

      * So, dollar begins to recover, and momentum takes over.

      * Coeure throws a cat among the pigeons.

      * N.Z. inflation ticks higher.

    • Yellen Cuts Off Currency Rally..

      In This Issue.

      * Full Employment? .

      * Chuck goes old school economics .

      * ECB meets today.

      * China sells more Treasuries! .

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    • Fed floods the markets with US$...

      * Bernanke gets help opening the spigot... * Euro and Pound rally... * Yen to continue to benefit from carry reversals...* Aussie $ rallies... ** Fed floods the markets with US$... Good day...and happy Columbus day! This is an official bank holiday here in the states, so all of the banks are closed, but the stock markets are open. We will have a half day here on the desk to try and catch up with all of the work which has been piling up the past few weeks. The phones are turned off, since it is an official bank holiday, but we will be checking messages and try to get back to everyone as quickly as possible. It is a very unusual holiday, as the banks are all closed with no funds transfers possible, but the stock markets are open. Currency desks are lightly staffed, so we will have to really work to get the trades done this morning. These strange holidays usually can lead to some real market volatility, and with today will probably be another rollercoaster. In an all out effort to ease the credit freeze, the Federal Reserve recruited help from the ECB, Bank of England, and the Swiss central bank to flood the market with US$. These central banks will auction unlimited dollar funds with maturities of seven days, 28 days, and 84 days at a fixed interest rate. This move is unprecedented, as all previous dollar swaps were capped at a maximum amount while these auctions will be for unlimited funds....
    • No News Is Good News for U.S. Economy / Dollar.

      In This Issue.

      * German ZEW is weak again.

      * Swedish Unemployment drops to 8%

      * Canada prints fiscal budget today.

      * RBA's minutes are dovish, and so is Stevens .

    • A Sense Of Optimism Sets In

      In This Issue.

      * Back to the negotiating table.

      * Oil trades in a tight range.

      * Chuck says a "new recession" is near..

      * Bill Murphy disses the investigation of Gold & Silver!

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    • High Yielders Rally...

      In This Issue..

      * Is it Game On for Carry Trades again?
      * A Trade-Free Zone for Southeast Asia!
      * 10-year yield rise will shut down the mortgage rally...
      * A min-rally for the euro this morning...

      Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I'm already draggin' the line today on the 2nd day back from vacation! UGH! The High Yielders are back to work this week, as the currencies of Australia, South Africa, and Brazil are attempting a come-back VS the dollar. This and more, as we head into the last Tuesday of 2009...

      Well... The last Monday of 2009, was uneventful with the currencies remaining in Tupperware ranges (tight that is!), and with little to show in the way of any measurable appreciation VS the dollar. There was no sign of the U.S. Corporations repatriating their profits yesterday as was rumored... Of course they still have today, tomorrow and Thursday to do so...

    • Passing Out The Dollars...

      * Risk Takers return... * Bank of America gets more cash! * 30-year mortgages below 5%! * Looking for direction... ** Passing Out The Dollars... Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday so far, let's keep it going, eh? It is downright cold here. I'm reminded of that one looooonnnnngggg winter I spent in Des Moines, Iowa... This artic cold was the "norm" for that winter there... I didn't need any other reason to move back to St. Louis, once the spring thaw came around! Well... Right out of the starters blocks this morning, we have a change in sentiment going on... The Risk Takers are back in the driver's seat this morning, as the markets are feeling better about things given that the remaining TARP money has been given to the Obama campers to dole out, and Bank of America came away with an emergency lifeline from the Gov't that totals about $138 Billion... $20 Billion in cash, right here, right now, with the rest spread out between liquidity access and guarantees... And... The TARP money... Given the fact that the Obama people have been itching like they just rolled around in poison ivy, to get their hands on that money... You've got to wonder... Are these guys going to do their best to out do the previous administration when it comes to piling up debts?...
    • The Obama Bounce Begins...

      * The dollar bounces! * ISM was simply awful! * Oil rallies... * Jobs Jamboree this Friday... ** The Obama Bounce Begins... Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A weekend of football! And there's more this week with the College National Championship Game on Thursday, and then more playoff games next weekend. Crazy time of year for the sport, for sure! So... The Christmas Tree decorations came off yesterday, along with some of the house decorations. My beautiful bride doesn't like to leave that stuff up for long, but for me, I would leave it up all year long! Well... Although, technically, it's still the Christmas season (it doesn't end until Jan. 11), the Santa rally that pushed the euro to 1.45, has gone away, and we're on to the next phase, which I drew out for you over a week ago... And that is... The Obama bounce... This is something we'll have to deal with for the next few months. It all began with a huge stock rally on Friday, and that won't be the last one during the Obama bounce....
    • Chinese PMI Soars Higher!

      * Global growth hopes return!. * A$ gets double boost! * Gold pushes higher!. * More bad data for Japan!.

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    • Rescue plan not an instant fix...

      * Rescue plan to take time... * Pound sterling rallies (for now)... * Brazil supports the real... * Iceland cuts rates... ** Rescue plan not an instant fix... Good day...Another roller coaster of a day, as the dollar continued to slide through lunch but then rallied back up in the afternoon. As I walked out the door last night, most of the major currencies were trading right about where they were when I turned the screens on. The dollar has started to fall again in overnight trading, so the up and down of the past few weeks looks to continue. The news stories coming across the wires this morning seem to be as volatile as the currencies. I have now counted three different stories which state the markets are moving back into higher yielding currencies and riskier investments after the coordinated bank bailout plan which was announced yesterday. But several other stories are talking about how investors are moving out of the higher yielding assets because of concern that the bank rescue will take too much time to unfreeze global credit markets. I tend to agree with the latter of these....
    • Global Growth In Question

      In This Issue.

      * Japan raises severity level to 7!

      * A$ is proxy for Global Growth.

      * Morgan Stanley raises outlook for reals.

      * Silver backs off of $41.

    • Gold Soars!

      In This Issue.

      * Save havens are getting bought today.

      * Yellen leaves us all scratching our heads!

      * Riksbank got deeper with negative rates!

      * Oil plunges to $26!

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    • Someone More Negative About Japan Than Chuck?

      In This Issue.

      * More currencies on the rally tracks today.

      * Why would traders move currencies up, ahead of FOMC Minutes?.

      * Chuck looks under the hood on India's idea.

      * Koos Jansen on Chinese Gold accumulation..

    • Hard Headed Traders!

      In This Issue.

      * Positive yield currencies get whacked!.

      * But currencies attempt to rebound today.

      * When will Markets admit they were wrong?

      * The Ukrainian Chicken Farm Moment"..

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