August 2012 - Forecasts & Trends

Forecasts & Trends is much more than just investment blog posts. You need to know the "big picture;" you need to have a "world view," especially in the post-911 world; and you need more information than ever before to be successful in meeting your financial goals. Gary intends to help you do just that.

Forecasts & Trends

Blog Subscription Form


    • The Worst Decade for America’s Middle Class

      We begin today by looking at a new demographic study from the Pew Research Center which contains some stark findings about the American middle class. The study concludes that the last 10 years have been the “worst decade in modern history” for the middle class. A lot of the findings will surprise you.

      From there we look at some new projections from the Congressional Budget Office which warn what will happen if we fall off the “fiscal cliff.” The CBO predicts that the US will fall back into recession early next year if the automatic tax increases and mandatory spending cuts occur at the end of this year.

      Next, the minutes from the Fed’s July 31/August 1 policy meeting (just released last week) revealed that the FOMC is indeed considering QE3, and an announcement may be forthcoming at the next meeting on September 12-13.

      Finally, I will share my thoughts with you on the new documentary movie, “2016: Obama’s America.” I saw Dinesh D’Souza’s film over the weekend and am very glad I did – I learned some things I did not know. More comments appear at the end of today’s letter.

    • A "Trillion" is Mind-Boggling: No, Even Worse!

      I would wager (with odds) that very few Americans understand just how mind-bogglingly enormous $1 trillion is. The analogy I will share with you today will knock your socks off! It certainly did mine.

      Yet our government is running trillion-dollar annual budget deficits like it’s no big deal. And it’s not just Obama – the first trillion-dollar deficit, which was incurred in FY2009, was actually the result of President George W. Bush’s budget, one of the few legitimate things Obama really inherited from “W.”

      I begin today by summarizing a recent eye-opening analysis - a great video, actually - that concludes that our continued trillion-dollar deficits will send us into the abyss. I realize that this is nothing new to many of my readers, but we need to continually remind ourselves how we are willingly and knowingly sending our country into economic and financial ruin.

      You will definitely want to watch this video and forward it on to others!

    • "Curiosity" – Return of American Exceptionalism

      It’s August; it’s hot; the Olympics have snagged our attention; and many people are on vacation. Given all those distractions, many people paid little attention to one of NASA's greatest accomplishments – the successful landing of the "Curiosity Rover" on Mars just after midnight on Monday, August 6. No other country on the planet could have pulled off this breathtaking and dangerous accomplishment. At once, American exceptionalism was reborn. So today, I will bring you the exciting highlights of this amazing accomplishment, along with some stunning photos from Mars. We can all be very proud!

      Before we get into that discussion, we look at some recent revelations from the Internal Revenue Service that are almost sure to make your blood boil. It turns out, after a government oversight investigation, that the IRS gave $6.8 billion in income tax refunds to illegal aliens last year. This is a bizarre story that you just have to read to believe. You wouldn’t think it, but millions of illegal aliens are filing fraudulent tax returns, even though they don’t have Social Security numbers, and the IRS is giving them billions in tax refunds each year. I'll explain how this is happening. Let’s get started.

    • Obama Tax Increase to Slash 700,000+ Jobs

      We begin by looking at last Friday’s unemployment report for July. The government reported that the economy created 163,000 new jobs in July, which was a big increase over the last three disappointing months. Yet the report also bumped the national unemployment rate from 8.2% in June to 8.3% in July. We will look into the details of the report as we go along.

      President Obama continues to push for a tax increase on families making over $250,000 starting on January 1. The debate for months has centered on whether or not this tax increase will result in widespread job losses. Well, a new study from the accounting firm Ernst & Young has answered that question definitively – at least 700,000 jobs will be lost if Obama gets his way.

      Finally, a little-known law passed back in 1988 requires companies with 100 employees or more to give at least 60-days notice to their workers if they know in advance that an event is coming that could lead to widespread layoffs. We all know about the so-called “fiscal cliff” that is coming on January 1 if Congress doesn’t do something to stop it.

      So the question is, will we see mass layoff notifications just days before the presidential election? The Obama administration is doing everything it can to avoid this, but the law is clear. I'll explain what's at stake as we go along today.