October 2012 - Forecasts & Trends

Forecasts & Trends is much more than just investment blog posts. You need to know the "big picture;" you need to have a "world view," especially in the post-911 world; and you need more information than ever before to be successful in meeting your financial goals. Gary intends to help you do just that.

Forecasts & Trends

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    • What Really Happened in Benghazi on Sept. 11

      I’ve been taking a lot of flak from the Obama supporters in this audience over the past few weeks. Some are demanding that I stick to economic and investment issues and stop criticizing the president. Sorry liberals, but I have long maintained that who we elect to run the country has a big impact on the economy and therefore investment trends.

      The good news for those of you who are backing Obama (and giving me grief) is that the election will be over next Tuesday night, barring something unusual, and I will have to accept the outcome even if President Obama is re-elected. Fortunately, the polls have moved in favor of Governor Romney in recent weeks, and I hope to be relieved on Election Night.

      Today, I want to make sure that my clients and readers are clear about what happened in Benghazi, Libya on the night of September 11 when four brave Americans were murdered by al Qaeda militants. Ambassador Chris Stevens repeatedly requested additional support to protect our Embassy there, and his requests were denied – by someone.

      Unfortunately, the mainstream media is not reporting much on this story, with the exception of Fox News and conservative commentators like Limbaugh, Hannity, O’Reilly and a few others. The American people, and especially my readers, deserve to know the truth before the election! We will dig into that today.

    • The Supreme Court Hangs in the Balance

      The airwaves are overflowing with intense discussions about President Obama’s and Governor Romney’s positions on a variety of issues. What we don’t hear much talk about is the likelihood that our next president will get to appoint at least a couple of justices to the Supreme Court. Depending on the outcome of the election, the balance in the High Court could shift significantly, especially if President Obama is re-elected.

      We also do not hear much about how control of the US Senate is critical when it comes to the candidates selected by our presidents to serve on the Supreme Court. If the Democrats hold onto the Senate, Obama will have greater leeway to put more liberal justices on the High Court. But if Governor Romney is elected, and the Dems control the Senate, he almost certainly will not be allowed to put true conservatives on the Court.

      For these reasons and others, let's examine today how the outcome of this presidential election will likely have a significant impact on the Supreme Court, especially if Mr. Obama is re-elected. If only more Americans were aware of this...

    • Latest United Nations Push For Global Taxation

      The United Nations recently formalized a broad set of global taxes and penalties that it wants to impose on developed nations in the Northern Hemisphere, and especially the US. The UN wants to raise some $400 billion annually to send to lesser developed nations in the Third World. And the kleptocrats at the UN want to implement these huge new taxes by the end of this year while President Obama is sure to be in office.

      These new taxes include a 1% income tax on all billionaires worldwide, a tax on all financial transactions (stocks, bonds, etc.), a tax on currency transactions, a carbon tax on developed nations, a tax on commercial airline flights from the US to Europe, a tax on oil and gas extracted offshore, a global tobacco tax, etc. Oh, and one more: control of the Internet.

      Since the UN does not have the legal authority to impose these taxes, it will attempt to structure these new taxes as "treaties" with member nations. US treaties are signed by the President and ratified by the Senate. The House of Representatives has no say when it comes to treaties. The question is, would President Obama sign such a treaty? And would the Senate ratify it? I would like to say no.

      You need to read the information I have included (and documented) in today's E-Letter carefully and consider it seriously before the election on November 6. We cannot allow our country to be subjected to UN defacto control vis-a-vis these onerous taxes. Above all, we cannot allow the UN to control the Internet. There is a choice in the upcoming election, and we need to speak loudly!

    • The Truth About Friday’s Unemployment Report

      Last Friday’s unemployment report for September was not only surprising but also controversial. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that 114,000 new jobs were created in September – no big surprise there. But to everyone’s surprise, the BLS reported that the unemployment rate plunged to 7.8% in one month. That was a shocker, especially given that we’re less than a month from the election!

      Even more shocking, the BLS reported that, according to its household survey, total employment rose by 873,000 in September, much of which was due to an increase in part-time work. That was the largest one-month increase in 29 years! So on the one hand, the BLS said 114,000 new jobs were created in September; and on the other hand said that total employment increased by a whopping 873,000.

      What gives? At the very least, this smells fishy, especially coming only one month before the election! Did the BLS fudge the data to give Obama a boost? Most say no. However, no one is pointing fingers at the Census Bureau that provides key data on household unemployment to the BLS. Maybe they should. I'll explain it all as we go along today.

      Finally, I have a few thoughts on the Obama/Romney debate last week that I think you'll find interesting.

    • Understanding How “Debt Deleveraging” Works

      Today we delve into the complicated topic of "debt deleveraging." For many years, I have warned that our massive explosion in federal debt (up 50% just since Obama took office) would one day stifle economic growth. Obviously economic growth is currently stifled, what with the weakest post-recession recovery in decades. But the question remains as to whether our massive national debt and trillion-dollar budget deficits are the main reason for the disappointing recovery.

      Consumers continue to deleverage – that is, paying down debt instead of spending more – because they fear for their jobs and the likelihood that we may be headed for another recession next year. This whole concept of deleveraging is foreign to many Americans – what is it?; how long will it continue?; and what does it mean for the economy, etc.? With the help of a very good article in U.S. News & World Report, I hope to answer those questions for you today.

      But first we take a quick look at the latest economic reports. Let's get started.