June 2013 - Forecasts & Trends

Forecasts & Trends is much more than just investment blog posts. You need to know the "big picture;" you need to have a "world view," especially in the post-911 world; and you need more information than ever before to be successful in meeting your financial goals. Gary intends to help you do just that.

Forecasts & Trends

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    • The Fed’s Dirty Little Secret: QE Does Not Work

      Bernanke speaks and the markets move, but probably not in the direction he expected. It appears that the stock and bond markets are addicted to QE and will crater anytime Big Ben even hints at taking his foot off of the gas.

      However, in this week's e-letter, I'm going to dig deeper into the Fed's activity over the past few years to dispel the myth that the Bernanke's unprecedented quantitative easing has lowered long-term interest rates.  In fact, I'll show how rates have actually risen during all three QE cycles.  You don't want to miss this.

      So how do you invest in this crazy market?  I have two words for you - "absolute returns."  I'll discuss how you need to take your eyes off of the short-term disruptions in the market and instead focus on the long term trends which, by the way, is where bulk of your investment goals likely reside. Plus, I'll show you how to get your FREE copy of my Absolute Return Special Report.

    • Will The Fed Tank The Markets Tomorrow?

      The Fed Open Market Committee is meeting today and tomorrow to set monetary policy going forward. The big question is whether or not the Fed will decide to “taper” its monthly purchases of $85 billion in Treasury bonds and mortgage securities, which have driven stocks and bonds higher over the last few years. The decision depends largely on the Fed’s view of the economy, so they tell us.

      No one knows for sure which way the Fed will go, but either way it will have a big impact on the markets. Both stocks and bonds have moved lower ahead of the meeting, and I expect a big move one way or the other depending on tomorrow’s announcement of the Fed’s decision on quantitative easing (“QE”).

      Following that discussion, we’ll look at the annual report from the Social Security Trustees. As usual, the Trustees warn that Social Security is going broke – what else is new? But there is a growing movement to raise the early retirement age from 62 to 64. Will it happen? I doubt it.

      Finally, I will update you on the growing list of Obama scandals and how the buck never seems to stop with the president. The result is that fewer and fewer Americans trust our government.

    • Economy Rolling Over, Obama Scandals Multiply

      There’s a lot to cover today, starting with last Friday’s unemployment report that was hailed by the media and the stock markets. But after looking into the data, I will argue that the report was lackluster at best. From there we’ll look at why the big picture economic outlook is becoming worrisome. We’ll drill down into the data only to conclude that the economy may be rolling over to the downside.

      And we’ll end with some thoughts on the Obama administration’s defense of the growing scandals. The Obama defense, as usual, is that this is nothing different from what George W. Bush did when he was in office. That story is wearing very thin, especially now that we’re five years into Obama’s presidency. The truth is, this is much worse! Plus, we’ll look at some new revelations that further suggest it was President Obama himself who caused the IRS to target conservative groups.

    • Fed Advisory Council Drops A Bombshell

      Last Friday afternoon, the Fed released the minutes from a May 17 meeting of the Federal Advisory Council (FAC) – that you probably never heard of before today. The Council is a group of 12 influential bankers from across the country who meet periodically and give the Fed Board of Governors input regarding the economy, monetary policy, etc. To my knowledge, no one in the mainstream media has reported on what you will read here today.

      Following that discussion, I will review the latest economic reports over the last couple of weeks and let you know what we’re looking for in reports during the balance of this week.

      Finally, I’ll give you my take on the escalating IRS scandal that is now being investigated in Congress. I will suggest to you that the roots of this scandal go all the way back to the landmark Citizens United vs Federal Election Commission decision made by the Supreme Court in January 2010. For whatever reasons, the media hasn’t seemed to make that connection.