January 2012 - Thoughts From The Frontline

This highly acclaimed blog is primarily focused on private money management, financial services, and investments. John Mauldin demonstrates an unusual breadth of expertise, as illustrated by the wide variety of issues addressed in-depth in his writings.

Thoughts From The Frontline

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    • The Transparency Trap

      This week we take a brief pause in our series on the choices facing the developed world to look at some items that are catching my attention. We will get back to the US next week, as somehow I think we will not solve our problems between now and next Friday, and there will be plenty left for us to talk about. So today we look at the “shift” in Fed policy, and at the balance sheets of central banks, US GDP, Portugal and the ECB, the LTRO policy, and yes, there’s even a tidbit on Greece. Plenty of ground to cover, so with no “but first,” let’s get started.

    • Staring into the Abyss

      Choices, Debt, and the Endgame
      Staring into the Abyss
      An Unintended (and Very Negative) Consequence
      A Preview of Coming Attractions
      Hallucinogenic Data and Other Fun Activities
      Gentlemen, Choose Your Disaster
      What Europe Should Do
      South Africa and Sweden

    • The End of Europe?

      Solving the Mayan Code
      To Solve the Crisis You Must Solve Three Problems
      Getting Simple About Europe
      How Much Risk Do You Want in a Government Bond?
      Do You Have a Spare €1.5 Trillion?
      Singapore, Cape Town, and Thoug

      One of the interesting things about being in Hong Kong is that I get to see the weekend edition of the Financial Times12 hours early. And the headlines were not all that pleasant. As I promised last week, we will cast our eyes to Europe and ponder what is in store for Europe for the year and the next five years. And what do we read on page 2? The "ECB raps revisions to draft a fiscal pact." Seems they feel there are too many loopholes, which will make the document meaningless … somewhat like the treaty they have now. And we further learn that "Greek default threat grows as talks falter." Seems there is a lack of agreement on how much of a haircut the investors ought to take, and the Greeks don't want to guarantee any future debt, just in case they need to default some more in the future. But they do want the €15 billion they need to keep the debt machine running for a few more months.

      hts on Hong Kong

    • 2012: A Year of Choices

      The Consequences of Path Dependency
      There’s No Going Back
      The End of the Debt Supercycle
      The Time for Hard Choices
      Hong Kong, Singapore, Bloomberg, and a Personal Note